• thebrickguy

How much should you pay for Duckpool on ebay? (10 day analysis)


This is a 10-day price analysis of a SDCC exclusive Minifigure (priced in USD). I picked the Deadpool Duck as it’s somewhat unique and one of those that has the potential to be quite a rare sought after item. While you may say that all SDCC items are rare, I have the opinion that some of the figurines, such as the Vixen released together at this same year side by side Deadpool Duck is just a ‘meh’ - and the after market price certainly does indicate this.


Baseline

To note that although that 509 ducks were sold, only 399 were used for the averages. So where did the rest go? For one, there is something known as “Best Offer” price which only the buyer and seller has visibility into, and there has been ‘bundles’ of Ducks and Vixen which sold together. I did not include those in the averages. The shipment price is not included obviously.

I’ve ignored prices on Bricklink as I’m interested to see what the immediate market as the items are being released. You may find good deals at bricklink once the heat dies down.


Background

For completeness, SDCC 2017 was held from the 19th to the 22nd of July. The Deadpool Ducks were given off in a lottery draw only on the 1st and 3rd day. You will notice that the trend of the units being sold were in it’s first 5 days.

More Stats

The average daily price has been steadily dropping from 265 USD down to 228 USD on day 10. The timestamp that I chose to demarcate the days are San Diego’s timezone which corresponds to the US PST (Pacific Standard Time) which also happens to be the eBay timestamps that I see on my own account.

The lowest price that someone snagged the exclusive duck for was $148.42 on the 21st (3rd day), and the highest was on the 21st that the lucky someone paid $520 for. That high price was a pre-order commit for the duck before even it was released, so technically, there was some speculation going on and that was the result of that price. Note that the chart that I created excludes this anomaly as I’m going to treat it as as pre-order price. The $148.42 snag is definitely worth it as even on day 10, the lowest average price hovers around $228.

So how many were sold below $200? The fact is, only a small amount, 5 pieces were sold below the $200 mark to date. So in general out of the 509 pieces or about 1% of the ducks were a damn good deal.

Trends

We can clearly see by the number of pieces that moved during SDCC is almost double the following 4 days, and 8 times more on the 9 and 10th days. Perhaps the rush has died down and 500 of these being traded, folks who want these ducks has already secured them, and the leftovers are sellers trying to let go of them at the best price they can to reap their returns. Which means that if you’ve not gotten yours, it looks like the best time to hunt for a deal.

Opinion

The 10 day AVERAGE stands at $254.89 based on the 399 units we’ve tracked price for. So, technically, my advice since Day 1 is to go for the $240-$250 price range but you may still be able to find good deals if you’re fast and patient for a lesser amount.

The post below is when I first started my analysis. I'm keeping it for reference if you're interested. But the stats above are the ones you really want.

This is a time sensitive article, I’m putting this out there based on the current trends and almost into end of DAY 3 at SDCC. This stat is captured as of 6pm DAY 3 San Diego time. Ducks were given out on DAY 1 and DAY 3 only.

I’m doing this to share a trend of a popular SDCC item and will re-write my thoughts and update this post another day. But for decision making purposes now - you get this.

Update 6: 6AM San Diego, 27th Thursday

Total Sold: 448 Ducks

Average of 352 = USD 259

** 96 Best Offer / Bundled with Vixen Fig (Not incl)

Update 5: 8AM San Diego, Monday

Total Sold: 333 Ducks

Average of 262 = USD 262

** 71 Best Offer (Not incl)

LOWEST: 148.42!!!

Update 4: 8AM San Diego, Sunday

Total Sold: 257 Ducks

Average of 197 = USD 264

** 60 Best Offer (Not incl)

Update 3: 1AM San Diego, Sunday

Total Sold: 244 Ducks Average of 186 = USD 265

** 58 Best Offer (Not incl)

Update 2: 10PM San Diego, Saturday

Total Sold : 231 Ducks

Average of 176 ** : USD 265

** 55 Best Offer (Not incl)

First Post: 6PM San Diego, Saturday

Number of Duckpools sold to date on ebay: 212 Ducks

The Average of 163** of those sold: USD 268

Highest: USD 520

Lowest: USD 192

** remaining 49 is BEST OFFER (Price not transparent) I left them out

*** The USD 520 seems to be an anomaly, I've left that out in my average calculation. The reasonable highest price is around USD 350 - USD 380.

REASON WHY YOU CAME HERE

Question: What's a reasonable price I should buy it at NOW based on current trends?

Answer: 240-250 USD Update 4: Higher Buy-It-Now listing have started to surface but I would still recommend going for this price range.

Update 5: I still see offers and acceptance of the 250 range. I suggest holding your guns, or looking for slightly better offers. Someone snagged it at $148.42!!! Patience and fast fingers will pay off!!!

Update 6: I would still say hold on to the 240-250 range, however, if you're patient, I've seen one-off lower prices (175 and 220, 230). It's once again about luck and timing.

Note: All of the above DOES NOT include shipping price

Question: Why should I believe you?

Answer: You don’t.

Question: What did you do to get the above stats?

Answer: I manually tracked all sold units on ebay and typed into an excel sheet.

Question: How is it possible to track?

Answer: Ask ebay

Question: Can I have your tracking sheet?!

Answer: Don’t be lazy, go make your own! 😃 Ok, maybe if you ask nicely and say please?

Question: How much will these go for after SDCC?

Answer: I have NO IDEA! I don't own any SDCC figures to date, so I DO NOT know what the prices will be AFTER SDCC. Google past SDCC items or look up ebay and you can get an idea.

Question: What is SDCC?

Answer: https://candidbricks.wordpress.com/2017/07/12/what-are-sdcc-exclusives/

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